As the season starts winding down, I can’t help but find myself going through endless amounts of possible playoff scenarios. As hard as it is for even me to admit, not all of them include the Tigers playing late in October. That’s not exactly optimism for a guy who just ordered his playoff tickets, but at least I’m being honest.
I found an interesting website yesterday ( http://www.coolstandings.com ) that devotes itself solely to predicting the likelihood of teams making the playoffs. It’s an interesting site for sports fans, but seeing as this is primarily a baseball blog, I’m going to focus on just that.
When they simulate the season, they run the rest of the games through a simulator one million times. Needless to say, that should do a fine job of eliminating any potential variances that could arise. I don’t know how accurate their simulators are, but they claim to include recent performances and strength of schedule, so that should count for something. All the same, take it for what it’s worth.
Playing the odds (at least according to the site), the playoffs should look something like this.
American League
Wild Card (One game playoff)
Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays
AL Division Series
Wild Card at New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers
National League
Wild Card (One game playoff)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves
NL Division Series
Wild Card at Washington Nationals
San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds
I can’t say that I would necessarily be shocked if that ends up being the case, but there’s a few teams that have a lot of work left to do if they want to make it to the playoffs. There’s no guarantees for the Tigers, White Sox, Pirates or Giants. Even though I feel confident all of the other teams will find a way to make it to the playoffs, I wouldn’t advise betting your life savings on it. Don’t believe me? Take a look at how the St. Louis Cardinals made the playoffs last year, perhaps that will help change your mind.
The expanded playoff system is something that I’m an advocate for. Unfortunately it was rushed into place this year, so there’s a few glitches. For instance, the team with the higher seeding will start on the road in the Division Series, which makes for some interesting decisions. A lot of people also dislike the fact that the Wild Card will be determined by just one game. Due to scheduling constraints, I’m not sure there’s a more logical way to do it. Not only that, but if they made it best of three, is it fair or wise to have other teams potentially not playing for a week?
By adding another playoff spot in the league, it leads to more revenue for the game (which is a positive for the business side of things), and it forces teams to actively try to win their division. The advantage of getting that extra day off is truly worth that much. Not only that, but it makes it feel like more teams have a chance at making it to the playoffs.
This is important to know, because it makes for a better competitive balance in all of baseball. Why wasn’t there a lot of big trades at this year’s trade deadline? Because a lot more teams felt like they still have a shot. It’s going to be hard for you to convince me that’s not a good thing for baseball.
